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【华泰环保公用王玮嘉团队】建投能源(000600,买入):河北火电龙头之一,业绩改善正当时

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年02月20日 06:42:54
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(原)(标)(题)(:【华)(泰)(环)(保)(公)(用)(王)(玮)(嘉)(团)(队)(】建)(投)(能)(源)((000600,买)(入)():河)(北)(火)(电)(龙)(头)(之)(一)(,业)(绩)(改)(善)(正)(当)(时)(
发)(布)(时)(间)(:2019年)(1月)(10日)(
研)(究)(员)(:王)(玮)(嘉)((S0570517050002),张)(雪)(蓉)((S0570517120003)
河)(北)(火)(电)(龙)(头)(之)(一)(,首)(次)(覆)(盖)(“买)(入)(”评)(级)(
公)(司)(为)(河)(北)(省)(第)(二)(大)(火)(电)(公)(司)(,截)(至)(18H1控)(股)(煤)(机)(装)(机)(容)(量)(达)(780万)(千)(瓦)(。我)(们)(预)(计)(18-20年)(河)(北)(省)(火)(电)(利)(用)(小)(时)(有)(望)(保)(持)(5000小)(时)(左)(右)(高)(位)(,公)(司)(煤)(价)(弹)(性)(明)(显)(,秦)(皇)(岛)(煤)(价)((5500K)下)(降)(10元)(/吨)(对)(应)(入)(炉)(煤)(价)(下)(降)(10元)(/吨)(,对)(应)(业)(绩)(增)(厚)(1.7亿)(元)(,占)(19年)(我)(们)(预)(期)(盈)(利)(的)(23%。我)(们)(预)(测)(18~20年)(归)(母)(净)(利)(润)(分)(别)(为)(3.5/7.3/11.4亿)(元)(,BPS为)(6.07/6.38/6.81元)(。当)(前)(股)(价)(对)(应)(18~20年)(P/E为)(29/14/9x,P/B为)(0.94/0.89/0.83x。P/B估)(值)(处)(低)(位)(,参)(考)(火)(电)(行)(业)(内)(可)(比)(公)(司)(19年)(平)(均)(P/B为)(1.1x,给)(予)(公)(司)(18年)(1.0-1.1倍)(P/B,对)(应)(目)(标)(价)(6.38-7.02元)(,给)(予)(“买)(入)(”评)(级)(。
河)(北)(用)(电)(需)(求)(有)(望)(稳)(定)(增)(长)(,新)(增)(装)(机)(及)(外)(购)(电)(对)(供)(给)(冲)(击)(有)(限)(
1)需)(求)(端)(:河)(北)(18年)(前)(11月)(用)(电)(量)(同)(比)(+6.6%,略)(低)(于)(全)(国)(增)(速)(,但)(较)(17年)(同)(期)(提)(速)(1.9pct。我)(们)(认)(为)(,供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(带)(来)(的)(钢)(铁)(等)(行)(业)(去)(产)(能)(对)(河)(北)(用)(电)(量)(负)(面)(影)(响)(正)(逐)(渐)(减)(弱)(。受)(益)(于)(雄)(安)(建)(设)(加)(速)(及)(北)(京)(工)(业)(外)(迁)(,19-20年)(用)(电)(量)(有)(望)(稳)(定)(增)(长)(。2)供)(给)(方)(面)(,我)(们)(预)(计)(18-20年)(河)(北)(无)(新)(增)(水)(电)(和)(核)(电)(装)(机)(投)(运)(,其)(余)(清)(洁)(能)(源)(装)(机)(提)(升)(对)(火)(电)(发)(电)(量)(冲)(击)(有)(限)(,此)(外)(河)(北)(19-20年)(新)(增)(3条)(特)(高)(压)(中)(2条)(为)(省)(内)(通)(道)(,另)(一)(条)(外)(送)(山)(东)(,对)(河)(北)(省)(外)(购)(电)(增)(量)(影)(响)(有)(限)(。我)(们)(预)(计)(2018-20年)(河)(北)(利)(用)(小)(时)(有)(望)(维)(持)(在)(5000小)(时)(以)(上)(。
高)(煤)(价)(弹)(性)(+市)(场)(化)(折)(价)(低)(,业)(绩)(有)(望)(持)(续)(改)(善)(
2009-2017年)(公)(司)(入)(炉)(煤)(价)(与)(秦)(皇)(岛)(煤)(价)((5500K)正)(相)(关)(性)(明)(显)(,我)(们)(预)(计)(秦)(皇)(岛)(煤)(价)((5500K)每)(下)(降)(10元)(/吨)(对)(应)(公)(司)(入)(炉)(煤)(价)(下)(降)(10元)(/吨)(,在)(我)(们)(测)(算)(基)(础)(上)(将)(增)(厚)(19-20年)(预)(测)(净)(利)(润)(的)(23%/16%。18Q4煤)(价)(旺)(季)(不)(旺)(特)(征)(明)(显)(,我)(们)(看)(好)(19年)(煤)(价)(中)(枢)(持)(续)(下)(行)(,公)(司)(业)(绩)(有)(望)(持)(续)(改)(善)(。市)(场)(化)(折)(价)(方)(面)(,公)(司)(80%以)(上)(装)(机)(位)(于)(河)(北)(南)(网)(,而)(18年)(河)(北)(南)(网)(电)(源)(结)(构)(中)(火)(电)(装)(机)(超)(过)(80%。18年)(河)(北)(南)(网)(煤)(机)(折)(价)(约)(为)(1.2分)(,低)(于)(全)(国)(均)(值)((18年)(前)(三)(季)(度)(2.7分)()。前)(7家)(公)(司)(火)(电)(装)(机)(占)(南)(网)(比)(例)(达)(90%,议)(价)(能)(力)(强)(,河)(北)(南)(网)(煤)(火)(电)(市)(场)(化)(电)(量)(低)(折)(价)(水)(平)(或)(延)(续)(。
潜)(在)(催)(化)(:资)(产)(注)(入)(持)(续)(推)(进)(,雄)(安)(建)(设)(加)(速)(驱)(动)(公)(司)(收)(入)(增)(长)(
1)资)(产)(注)(入)(:根)(据)(公)(司)(18年)(10月)(公)(告)(,公)(司)(拟)(收)(购)(母)(公)(司)(持)(股)(的)(3家)(电)(力)(公)(司)(股)(权)(。建)(投)(能)(源)(历)(史)(上)(分)(别)(于)(2007/2013/2014年)(三)(次)(向)(公)(司)(注)(入)(优)(质)(资)(产)(,注)(入)(P/B分)(别)(为)(1.2/1.6/1.5x。以)(2007年)(资)(产)(注)(入)(为)(例)(,公)(告)(日)(以)(来)(公)(司)(股)(价)(相)(对)(于)(火)(电)(指)(数)(超)(额)(收)(益)(最)(高)(达)(20%。后)(续)(需)(密)(切)(关)(注)(此)(次)(注)(入)(定)(价)(情)(况)(。2)雄)(安)(新)(区)(:公)(司)(毗)(邻)(雄)(安)(新)(区)(,后)(续)(有)(望)(参)(与)(雄)(安)(新)(区)(能)(源)(供)(应)(,有)(助)(于)(公)(司)(拓)(展)(新)(利)(润)(贡)(献)(点)(。
可)(比)(公)(司)(19年)(平)(均)(P/B1.1x,目)(标)(价)(6.38-7.02元)(
我)(们)(预)(测)(2018~20年)(EPS为)(0.19/0.41/0.64元)(,BPS为)(6.07/6.38/6.81元)(。当)(前)(股)(价)(对)(应)(2018~2020年)(P/E为)(29/14/9x,P/B为)(0.94/0.89/0.83x。P/B估)(值)(处)(低)(位)(,参)(考)(火)(电)(行)(业)(内)(可)(比)(公)(司)(19年)(平)(均)(P/B为)(1.1x,给)(予)(公)(司)(19年)(1.0-1.1倍)(P/B,对)(应)(目)(标)(价)(6.38-7.02元)(,给)(予)(“买)(入)(”评)(级)(。
风)(险)(提)(示)(:煤)(价)(下)(降)(不)(及)(预)(期)(,利)(用)(小)(时)(/电)(价)(下)(降)(,注)(入)(资)(产)(定)(价)(过)(高)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
阅)(读)(()
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